Liuyao shares (603368): Distribution and retail double-force performance again exceeded expectations

The 1H19 performance exceeded expectations again on August 12, the company released its 2019 Interim Report and achieved 71 revenue.

9.7 billion (+30.

47%), achieving net profit attributable to mothers3.

5.6 billion (+39.

35%), net of non-attributed net profit3.

5 billion (+37.

twenty two%).

If the impact of the replacement of Metrohm Pharmaceuticals is consolidated, we estimate that the company’s endogenous vertical growth rate of net profit attributable to its mother in 1H19 is about 32%.

The company achieved revenue of 38 in 2Q19.

100,000 yuan (+35.

86%), deducting non-attributed net profit1.

9.5 billion (+37.

74%), the growth rate increased by 10 in the early 1Q19.

97 points and 1.

18pct, following 1Q19 results continued to exceed expectations.

We raise our profit forecast and expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 2.

73/3.

42/4.

19 yuan, adjust the target price to 40.

99-46.

46 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Distribution: The strength is still strong. The high-growth company’s 1H19 distribution business revenue is about US $ 6.1 billion, an annual growth rate of 25%. Beyond expectations, the Guangxi distribution leader has gradually increased and stabilized.

Subversion transfer and grassroots business impact, the company’s 1H19 hospital pure sales business income53.

820,000 yuan, an annual increase of 28%.

The company has expanded supply chain extension service projects with 68 medical institutions in the region, improved professional service capabilities and expanded leading advantages.

We expect the company’s preliminary distribution business revenue growth rate to remain at 25% in 2019.

Retail: The advantages of wholesale and retail integration are significant. The sales volume of the company ‘s wholly-owned subsidiary Guizhong University Pharmacy at the end of the 1H19 period reached 547 (including 341 medical insurance stores and 82 DTP pharmacies), an increase of 104 from the end of 2018, and revenue8.

68 ppm, a previous increase of 53%, also exceeded market expectations.

Inferring the impact of the consolidation, we estimate that the company’s retail business revenue growth rate in 1H19 was about 38%.

We believe that this is because the company’s mature hospital channel relationship promotes the integrated development of wholesale and retail, which is a distinct advantage of the company from ordinary social pharmacies.

We expect the company’s retail business revenue to grow 45-50% in early 2019.

Industry: Expansion of Xianzhu Traditional Chinese Medicine’s capacity, Wantong Pharmaceutical’s well-operated company’s industrial business develops steadily: 1) 1H19 Xianzhu Traditional Chinese Medicine achieved a net profit of 10.89 million yuan, an increase of 42%, and its capacity has continued to expand.It is expected that Xianzhu Traditional Chinese Medicine’s preliminary expected revenue in 2019 will exceed 200 million; 2) Vantone Pharmaceuticals has a stable operation and a profit of 33.45 million yuan in 1H19. New production lines may be completed during the year. We expect Vantone Pharmaceuticals to increase its revenue by approximately 20% in 2019;Medical University Xiansheng has passed GMP certification and put into production.

The 天津夜网 distribution and retail business both exceeded expectations. Maintaining a “buy” rating. The company ‘s 1H19 distribution and retail business both exceeded expectations. Therefore, we raised the company ‘s distribution and retail revenue growth expectations and raised its profit forecast. It is expected that the company will return to its parent net in 2019-2021.The profit is 7.

08/8.

87/10.

8.6 billion (value before 2019-2021 is 6).

87/8.

54/10.450,000 yuan), an increase of 34% / 25% / 22% in the past, the current expected corresponding PE for 2019-2021 is estimated to be 12x / 10x / 8x respectively.

Considering that the company’s performance growth far exceeds most comparable companies, we give the company a PE estimate of 15x-17x in 2019 (the similar PE company’s 2019 PE estimate is 11x) and adjust the target 重庆耍耍网 price to 40.

99-46.

46 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: The drug collection promotion is beyond expectations; the growth of M & A targets is lower than expected.