Liu Shijin: China’s economy has not broken its bones, has the potential to catch up according to the estimated
On May 22, the 2020 “Government Work Report” was freshly released.Sauna Night Network held a series of national “two sessions economic strategy” salons to challenge the Chinese economy, invited members of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, former chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission Xiao Gang, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, former vice chairman of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission Zhou Yanli, deputy director of the National Committee of the CPPCC Economic Committee Liu ShijinLiu Shangxi, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and dean of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, interpreted the economic growth and fiscal and monetary policies.In the connection, Liu Shijin said that there are many bright spots in the government work report, and China’s economic fundamentals are not hurt; it is also possible to actively explore without setting specific targets for economic growth, but the provincial level can propose growth ratesAs a goal, provinces can proceed from reality and compete appropriately; direct economic growth directly to the strength of macro-policy is easy to fall into misunderstandings, and focus and focus on remaining growth potential.China ‘s economic fundamentals are not hurt. Liu Shijin said that there are many bright spots in the government work report. Everyone is more concerned about China ‘s economic growth potential, speed and prospects.This epidemic has a relatively large impact on the economy. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was negative 6.Looking back at 8%, the domestic economy will gradually recover, but the overseas epidemic situation is still in a state of great uncertainty. The inflection point in Europe has been cut, and the inflection point in the United States is not very clear.The impact on China’s economy is foreign trade. Although the growth rate of foreign trade in the past four months is not bad, it is still worried that it will continue in the future. Many European and American countries that have trade relations with China have stopped trading and there are obstacles.  ”If the economic shutdown is the first wave of shocks, foreign trade may be the second wave of shocks. It is possible that the length of time and the intensity will be greater than that of the first wave. You need to observe.”Liu Shijin said that in this case, we need to start from the long-term and the overall situation, and talk about economic fundamentals, structural production capacity, and development laws.”  Today’s government work report stated that China’s economic growth potential is ample, well-recognized and strong, with ample room for maneuver and many policy tools.Liu Shijin said that the support for these characteristics is a fundamental factor in China, although many things have changed due to the impact, and nothing has changed.The fundamentals of China ‘s economy have not been hurt, and six have remained unchanged: China is still in a period of important strategic opportunities; the industrial structure and consumption structure have been upgraded; the development of urban agglomerations has not changed; the expansion of middle-income groups has formed the worldThe largest domestic demand market has not changed; based on scientific and technological progress, promoting innovation and green development has not changed; building a high-standard market economy system, optimizing reforms to stimulate vitality and competition has not changed; insisting on opening up to the outside world, promoting economic growth has not changed in twists and turns,This is our fundamental factor.In the future, it may be considered that it is not necessary to re-set specific economic growth targets. When the government work report this year did not set specific economic growth targets, Liu Shijin said that the report made an explanation because this year is special and the uncertainty in the second half of the year is very large.So it is difficult to determine.But setting the employment target and implementing the spirit of giving priority to employment is not only beneficial this year, but also beneficial to macro policies.Steady growth is to stabilize employment and push the employment index directly to the first place. If the employment problem is solved better, the growth rate is actually a more appropriate level, which can be explained from the perspective of macroeconomics.  He believes that without setting specific targets for economic growth, it can also be an active exploration. In the future, can we determine employment indicators at the national level, and then outline some of the economic scale, sustainable development requirements, and control prices and risks as much as possible,If the residents’ income and other indicators are required, it is not necessary to raise the specific growth rate of the economy.  In addition, the provincial budget can propose growth rate targets. Provinces can proceed from reality and compete appropriately. On this basis, the state can evaluate the development of the provinces. If someone ‘s indicators are done well, the country has corresponding policy incentives. On the contraryThere is no.For the specific policies linked to the development status of the provinces, such adjustments can be considered in the next step.Directly relying on economic growth to rely on the speed of macro policies is easy to fall into the misunderstanding. In the connection, Liu Shijin is currently affected by the epidemic and the economy is encountering difficulties.The spirit of several documents, including the marketization of elements, has brought about substantial progress in reform.  He also mentioned that the market is very concerned about macroeconomic policies, including monetary and fiscal policies. He thinks about the economic growth and how much he directly depends on the macroeconomic policies. However, it is easy to fall into misunderstandings when considering such issues.  According to Liu Shijin’s analysis, China’s economy is in a highly overlapping state in the short term. Macroeconomic policies mainly have three functions: restoring the industrial chain, bailing out companies without income, and hedging.”There are some structural problems in the middle of the economy, and short-term shocks. If the financial system is also interrupted, it may cause big problems, such as liquidity risk.In this process, to increase liquidity, flow alone cannot support the operation of the entire economic system. Monetary policy should be looser than before, which is normal, but mainly to deal with short-term situations.”The subsequent continued growth will require the discovery of new growth momentum.Liu Shijin is outstanding, and his focus and focus should be on the potential for growth.He said that China has the potential to catch up with the forecasted ratio. For example, there is still a gap of 30,000 US dollars per capita GDP; while the new potential formed by technological progress and green development is basically synchronized with these, these are structural potentials.  Sauna, Ye Wang Cheng Weimiao Gu Zhijuan Editor Sun Yong